Bull Horns & Bear Claws -- Is This A Bull Run In The Making? Plus Turkey-Day Predictions.
Hi everyone. As my username would indicate, my name is Bret Kenwell. I'm a trader/investor who focuses mainly on derivatives, such as options and futures. With options I focus on equities and do trade stock quite often, mainly as a leg to an options strategy. For futures I consistently stick the Dow e-mini contracts, while also focusing on crude and the S&P e-mini contracts as well. I will mainly use this blog as a place for both the reader and myself to learn -- learn from mistakes, my trades, and anything that can lend a hand. I like to blog because it helps keep my mind clear, as well as connect with others who follow me. So let's get started!
It's quite a busy week when you start to think about it. The market? Well, not really with only 3.5 trading days, it's a little less hectic. But then throw in the family, food, and deciphering whether this rally was real or not. Yeah, it's quite a full plate this Thanksgiving Week, no pun intended.
I can honestly admit that I don't know if this is a genuine bull run in the making, or just a technical bounce due to oversold conditions, coupled with enthusiasm over Fiscal Cliff resolution. One thing I do know however is that "rumor rallies" only last so long. Eventually they die off and the current trend continues, which in this case, is down.
Just for the record, I'm not saying that will happen. Also, I'm not one float along making cases for bulls and bears alike, only to claim I was right when the market finally broke one way or the other. I don't mind going out there and making my stance, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Simple as can be.
But in this case, I really just don't know. I'm mostly cash right now, and I've only began accumulating quality companies, ones with healthy balances sheets, solid dividends or great looking charts. Until we get some real decisions from Congress -- don't hold your breathe -- I think this rally can only go so far. That's why I'm avoiding mo-mo names with high volatility.
Overall, I'm just glad to be back in the markets. I've spent the last six weeks in Europe, and while it was one of the best decisions I've made, I'm really glad to be back. It's something that I'll never, ever regret and was a total blast along with one hell of a life experience. But man did I miss my market.
My favorite stock of the moment is Ford ( F). HA! I said it, and never thought I would. Below I will include a link for a recent Ford article I wrote at Seeking Alpha. Fundamentally its doing okay, but the chart is looking great and I really think this one has breakout written all over it.
The strength has been unreal, especially this last month. At the time of the article, which was just the other day, F has returned 4%, while the S&P 500 ( SPY) has lost 6%, not too shabby.
But enough stocks, tomorrow is Thanksgiving for Christ's sake. Aside from the obnoxious amount of food that we'll all consume, there are plenty of sports to watch. When I say sports, I of course mean football. This is also to say that it is a complete and utter disgrace to not be watching an NHL game for second time in seven years. But that is neither here nor there and will be another rant of mine sometime in not the not-so-distant-future.
Below are my predictions for the scores to tomorrow's games. Now that I no longer write in sports, I can afford to predict the scores I want, rather than what I think will actually happen. In the order the games will be played tomorrow:
Lions 31 Texans 27
Redskins 27 Cowboys 23
Patriots 34 Jets 24
Remember, we're going for desired outcome here :)
Bullish Ford strategy: Buying This Auto Stock Before The Move
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